| Example
2
Suppose there is $80 in the pot, and you have
two pair. You are playing draw poker, and
you bet $10, which we will assume is all you
can bet. Your single opponent has a four flush
- that is, four cards to a flush. The question
is - are you rooting for him to call or fold?
Naturally you want him to do what is most
profitable for you. The Fundamental Theorem
of Poker states that what is most profitable
for you is for your opponent to make the incorrect
play based on complete information about both
hands. Since your opponent is getting 9-to-1
odds (his $10 call might win him $90) and
is only about a 5-to-1 underdog to make a
flush, it is correct for him to call because
a call has positive expectation. Since it
is correct for him to call, following the
Fundamental Theorem, you are therefore rooting
for him to fold.
This sort of situation comes up frequently.
You have the best hand, but your opponent
is getting odds good enough to make it correct
to call if he knew what you had. Therefore,
you want your opponent to fold. By the same
token, it is correct for you to chase when
you are getting sufficient pot odds. If you
don't chase, you are costing yourself money
and, therefore, making money for your opponent.
|
